Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A shock assault on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for this long.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”